Predicting the NHL Playoffs 07/08

I've become increasingly interested in computer solutions and simulations for domains where you might not expect something can be done. One domain that I've been more and more interested in is NHL hockey -- a sport that I'm a fan of. So before the 2007/2008 playoffs started, I decided to write a simulator that figured out how likely it was that each team won the stanley cup based on their regular season statistics. The results are below, with each team's probability of making it past each round the numbers in the columns. So the Montreal Canadiens have a 72% chance of beating the bruins, and a 12.2% chance of winning the cup.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.720 0.446 0.264 0.122
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590 0.362 0.193 0.083
Washington_Capitals 0.481 0.224 0.097 0.033
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477 0.217 0.096 0.034
New_York_Rangers 0.523 0.250 0.116 0.043
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519 0.236 0.110 0.039
Ottawa_Senators 0.410 0.167 0.086 0.030
Boston_Bruins 0.280 0.098 0.039 0.010

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811 0.622 0.449 0.330
San_Jose_Sharks 0.634 0.368 0.150 0.082
Minnesota_Wild 0.468 0.187 0.056 0.024
Anaheim_Ducks 0.414 0.182 0.069 0.033
Dallas_Stars 0.586 0.306 0.141 0.079
Colorado_Avalanche 0.532 0.178 0.068 0.031
Calgary_Flames 0.366 0.086 0.037 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.189 0.072 0.030 0.012

What's startling is Detroit's enormous 33% chance of winning the whole thing. A couple of other surprises include Dallas' relatively high probability of winning the cup (7.9%). It's much higher than the Ducks or Avs which are next to them in the standings.

How does this work? I basically calculate the average goals a team is expected to score against their opposing team by using the season goals-for and goals-against numbers. I use this to simulate games between teams and run entire playoff simulations. The probabilities above are simply the number of times that team reaches the next round divided by the number of simulations.

I don't have very many features added in that I would like to add. One particular one is a recency statistic that increases the relevance of the last 20 games of the season. I expect that such a statistic will greatly increase San Jose and Washington's chances of winning the cup and probably dampen Dallas' chances.

Credit to Darse for giving me some hints and tips on how to create my simulator. Hopefully I'll get a chance to work on it a bit more so that I can build in some more statistics to help it make a more informed decision.

Heraldk

3-0 Baby!

I've been playing floor hockey with the CS team again this year. This year we've got a pretty competitive looking team. Several new additions to the team mean we've got some serious firepower on the floor almost every shift, and the players that don't have that firepower are good solid players. So with last night's 10-1 win capping off the 3 game round robin, we're on top of the division for the first time since I joined the team several years ago. Woohoo! It's a lot of fun to play and have a shot to win. I haven't often been on a team that has had a competitive shot to win.

In related news, it looks like I might be able to join a floor hockey team in the Edmonton ball hockey league. I've been looking for a league to play in for a long time, so I'm pretty excited about getting a chance to play finally. The short intramural season was just not enough time to play floor hockey each semester.

Heraldk

Maddening Oilers

Man, I just can't shake the feeling that the Oilers have some chance to go on a stretch of wins. They've got so much talent - they just can't seem to put it together. Of course, the crazy number of injuries isn't helping. If the Oilers started getting healthy all of a sudden, I think we'd be looking at a particularly good team. The game last night against Vancouver was a lot of fun to watch. It was also a nail-biter, and every time Vancouver got some pressure on us I got nervous. But Mathieu Garon managed to put on A SHOW and stopped everything that Vancouver sent his way - including three shootout attempts! The Oil looked dangerous for parts of the game, but they seem to have this bad habit of giving the puck away in the neutral zone (or worse, in their own end). I don't know how to get them to do this, but they need to be able to maintain control of the puck for longer parts of the game or we're going to continue having trouble maintaining any pressure.

Tonight's game was worse for that score. We just couldn't keep constant pressure on the puck and it seemed like every second shift we'd give the puck away several times. Ewww. Hockey like that is maddening to watch for the fan. Glad to see Jarret Stoll get a couple goals though. They were a bit ugly, but I'm glad to see him snap his goal drought. Let's hope he continues to recover last year's form!

Maybe their play tonight was due to the back-to-back schedule. I sure hope they can start building some consistency into their game ... if they do, and start to get healthy ... I seriously think we've got a playoff bound team. Until then though, we're in some trouble.

Heraldk

Reorganization

Every so often I feel the sudden urge to reorganize the furniture in my room. Today was one of those days. I don't know what it is - maybe it's a fresh perspective on something I see everyday, maybe it's a chance to try something else ... but it seems that whenever I do it, I am almost always completely satisfied with the result. This time is no different. Several of the elements in my room were moved around and the room feels like a totally different place - and the organization is altogether better (in my mind at least). I completed the furniture move before the hockey game (that's another post), and then sorted out a bunch of crap that had accumulated. I'm going to be spending some time in the near future sorting through paper that I've accumulated and trying to discard as much as possible. It seems pretty unlikely I'll need my high school financial management course work, don't you think? (Oh yeah, I kept a lot of crap). Something tells me I'm going to need a couple of boxes to take all the paper I'm going to discard to the recycling bin.

I love it. I find a reorganized room refreshing and different - and yet familiar in the same way. So it is nice to be able to get that feeling here.

Heraldk

Predictions

I'm not going to give my predictions for the upcoming NHL season, although I suppose it has already started officially since there's been a couple of games have been played over in London. I am, however, going to rant a little about the predictions of other "experts". It seems that hockey experts agree that the Oilers have no shot at making the playoffs this year. I have one thing to say: why do these so called "experts" always sell the Oil short? It doesn't seem all that long ago when the Oilers were pushing for the 8th and final playoff spot a couple years ago. They were a team that was fighting it's own potential. I knew the team had a lot of talent, but it seemed that every couple of games, they'd lose a you-should-win-this-game type scenario and they'd slip back a notch. They did it, but barely. In the first round that year, they were up against the high powered Detroit Red Wings. Everyone wrote Edmonton off and had them down in out quickly. Surprise, surprise when the Oil suddenly became the team they were capable of becoming and took down not only Detroit, but San Jose, Anaheim, and almost Carolina en route to the stanley cup final.

Last year was a painful year for the average Oiler fan. The team struggled in mediocrity for most of the season and then got hit by a terrible injury streak that took most of the regulars out of the lineup. As a result, the team skidded to a halt and failed to win most of their remaining games.

The offseason was a high-drama period where the Oilers made a large number of moves and almost completely re-tooled. Powered by the new blue-liners of Pitkanen and Souray, they have far more power on defence than they had last year. Penner adds some size and some scoring punch and Sanderson is a wily veteran who should contribute as well. The real exciting thing for this upcoming season though is the chance for some of the youth to shine. The Oilers have several young players, in addition to Ales Hemsky, who all have a shot of hitting it big this year. These guys include Gagner, Nilsson, Brodziak, Pouliot, and Cogliano. To me, this is super exciting ... and I have a hard time believing that the Oilers are going to have trouble making the playoffs.

But lets take a look at what the experts think. One of the oft-quoted stats from last year is +/-. I'm not sure how they can compare player's +/- stats correctly when these numbers are so very biased on the team they were playing for. For example, Souray and Pitkanen both played on teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. This typically means that those teams got scored on more often than they scored (duh). So take two important defencemen who play big minutes for their teams and put them on clubs that are losing. What happens to their plus minus? It plummets. Whoop-dee-doo. I'm not saying the statistic is meaningless. I'm just saying that you need to make sure you keep in mind what you're trying to compare.

A lot of analysis seems to compare how a team has changed from the previous year. Unfortunately, this also is a problem. How do the experts know that the "winners" of the free agency craziness (the rangers and the flyers) are going to gel and mesh the star players they signed? Who's to say that teams with a bunch of young talent are going to not mesh and start winning games? The past doesn't necessarily tell the future, folks - especially when so much has changed from last season.

One of the things I think many people forget is that the new collective bargaining agreement is giving teams some level ground to play on. It's not completely level, that's for sure, but teams are much more evenly matched than they used to be. Remember the Oiler's heyday way back when they were winning cups every year? That team was so stacked that you had to expect great things from them. Fast forward to today - there are far fewer teams that looked that stacked in comparison. Maybe the penguins look a bit awesome at the moment ... but the division from them to the next closest team is far smaller than for the Oilers back in the day. The salary cap helps balance out the skill players among the teams, and as a result, nearly any team has a chance to do well enough to hit the playoffs. So I don't think last year means nearly as much as the experts seem to think. I also don't think they have ever given the Oilers enough credit.

So I think the Oilers have a good chance of doing well this season, and we'll just have to see how it turns out.

Go Oilers! Heraldk

Oilers and Nylander

Ugh. Why is so much bad stuff happening to Kevin Lowe? Seriously, if the news reports on the Nylander debacle are true, he has every right to be seriously livid over this. What the hell? Here's where this thing hurts the most. Kevin Lowe thinks he's signed the talented player to play on the top line with Ales Hemsky. Now he can move on to fill in other chinks in the Oilers roster. This is just two days after the free agency has kicked in, and teams have grabbed a large portion of the top talent available. Now, a full day later from when Lowe *thought* he had a signing, he now needs to backpedal and see what he can get from the dwindling pool of talent available. At this point, he might have to consider Alexei Yashin ... a player I'm not entirely thrilled to think about in an Oiler uniform. If he doesn't find a player he wants, he's going to have to resort to trading again - which may or may not be possible. *sigh*. I feel real sorry for Kevin Lowe. Seriously. The guy is smart. He's made a lot of smart deals for the Oilers. However, he's gotten seriously screwed over by a couple of things ... the Chris Pronger thing was one, and now this. Not to mention the players who left after the Stanley Cup Finals last year ... despite finishing runners-up to the Carolina Hurricanes, they decided that other hockey teams were better locations. Bleh.

I really respect what Kevin Lowe is doing. His job is not easy. I feel that his Smyth trade was a smart move considering that Smyth seemed to be more interested in the money than signing with his home team. The recent Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul trade looks like a really good deal on paper to me. Sure, we lose another heart player. We've still got a lot of those! Staios, Stoll and Moreau are awesome heart and soul players for the Oil! In return, we get Pitkanen and Sanderson - both players who I think can contribute.

We'll have to see how things go. The Oilers are still in a position to do well this season. Sure, they need to add a bit more talent ... and Nylander could have been a key piece. However, they still have a lot of young talent that could either prove themselves this year or be tradebait for some top-notch talent. I'm excited to see names like O'Marra, Nilsson, Shremp, Pouliot, Cogliano, and Gagner just about ready to enter the NHL - it's an exciting time for them and I'm looking forward to seeing them develop into good players!

So I say to Oilers fans ... stay patient with K. Lowe. We're in pretty good shape still I think.

Heraldk

A New Edmonton Arena

Anyone who's been reading the journal lately knows that there seems to be an ongoing debate over the council's investigation into building a new arena in downtown Edmonton to replace Rexall Place. There's been a barrage of articles over the past few days pointing out some of the advantages and disadvantages to the proposal ... and I guess I shouldn't be surprised there is such hot debate over the topic. It is, after all, a large investment of city resources. I'm cautiously in favour of a new arena in the downtown core, but I've been waiting to weigh in on the issue until I'd read a few more articles in the paper. I think today's article by Scott McKeen convinces me that it's a good idea, and touches on many of the complaints that people have with the arena.

So, why do we need a new arena? Well the reality of the situation is that Rexall is aging - particularly when compared to arenas in other cities. It's the 2nd oldest building the remains in active use in the NHL. From the Oiler's perspective, its hard to remain competitive if they can't sell as many seats or luxury boxes as other teams. If you've been reading my blog, you know I'm an Oiler fanboy, so you'll know that I'm biased about this from the start. But before you chastise me for being biased, Scott McKeen makes the point that Rexall is not just used for Oiler games... a new arena would be usable to attract some of the world's biggest musical acts as well. Not only that, one should only look back to this time last year when the Oilers were making their unlikely run through the playoffs to know how important the Oilers are to this city. Don't you think they deserve the chance to remain competitive - particularly when a competitive Oiler team makes this city swell with pride?

So I believe a new arena is warranted. So what are the issues? Well cost is one big one. Already though, it looks like there are several options that will require much less taxpayer dollars to build the arena. As the committee looks at it in more detail, we'll see what they come up with. However, several people more in the know than I remain confident that much of the cost can be absorbed from other sources. Sounds good to me.

As to the location - why not build the arena downtown? Downtown is starting to get much more lively as we are finally seeing condos being built in the core. (I'm happy that the city is finally starting to build up a little - the sprawl of this city is kind of disgusting). Building the arena downtown can only help - particularly since the current proposal is to build it in an area of downtown that isn't exactly bustling at the moment. You have to go west of city hall to really see active part of downtown. Thousands of people pouring into downtown to watch the latest hockey game or concert -- sounds like a good plan to get people downtown. The inevitable businesses that pop up around and in the facility will help draw people to arrive downtown early and have them stay late.

To be honest, I am a little biased. And I don't know all the issues. I do however, have a hard time believing that this isn't a good idea for the city. Many articles have pointed at other cities and the success of downtown arenas there -- places like Vancouver and Columbus and Denver and ... well I forget all of them, but there's quite a few. I don't know all the information, but maybe someone can point out to me why a new downtown arena in Edmonton can hurt us.

Heraldk

Run Run Run

Last night was crazy. I had two campus rec intramural playoff games, one Volleyball and one floor hockey which were at almost overlapping times. I decided to play the volleyball one because if we won, then we'd make the final which was the same night. So I went there and we lost really fast. It was 8:00 - about the time our floor hockey game was to start. So I ran over to the bus stop and saw that the bus to get over there was there! I hopped on, and got to the gym to find my team down a goal with 3 minutes or so left. I grab a guy's stick and play the remaining two minutes straight -- unfortunately we couldn't tie the game up. *sigh*.

So then I go home and sit down at my computer where I code a script that will help the development of the poker bot I'm working on ... and don't finish that until 3 in the morning. I'm TIRED.

So if you'll excuse me, maybe I'll go take a nap. Heraldk

Skiing!

This weekend I went out skiing at Kimberley, BC with a small group of friends. It was fabulous! It was a bit of a long drive just for a weekend trip, but I definitely felt it was worth it. The snow was incredible, and the weather was unbeatable. On Saturday we hit a high of +4-ish, and on Sunday the forecast was saying it would hit +7! Diane and I, along with Rob, drove down starting in the afternoon on Friday and made really good time. We arrived at before 10:00, and hung out for a couple of hours. We enjoyed using the private hot tub which was one of the excellent features of our suite. The condo we stayed at was actually an amazing deal. It cost us $100 a night for the condo ... split 5 ways! So $40 for the weekend's accomodation was pretty sweet I'd say!

On Saturday morning, our group got up in an attempt to get on the hill as soon as the lifts started. After a full day of some really fun skiing, we got cleaned up and went out for dinner at the Kelsey's on the hill. Fun times! Somehow Rob decided it was a good idea to pay the bill for dinner: Thanks Rob! You really didn't need to do that!

After dinner we wandered back to the suite (en route I took the above picture) and relaxed. We completed a game of scattegories we had started the night before and then watched the hockey game. It was all in all a good day! The next day we got ourselves all packed up and then went and enjoyed a few more hours of skiing before starting the trek home.

It was a very good weekend -- full of snow, sunshine and some wonderful company. I can't wait for the next trip!

Heraldk

Robocup Soccer

I was talking to Michael Bowling yesterday on the train and somehow the topic of his experience in robocup competitions came up. He's got lots of great stories about the odd things that happen at these competitions, and it's always really cool to talk to him about his experiences. In this conversation, I had my own experience to talk about. You see, in CMPUT 366 a few years ago, our introductory course on AI held a robocup simulation tournament. For those who don't know, robocup is the robot soccer competition, and it has many tournaments from a simulation based league to actual robots. Since this was an AI course, we were concentrating on the AI side of things and thus robots didn't come into play. I figured that since it's an interesting subject, I'd talk a bit about how I approached the problem and maybe give you an idea of what it is like to work in AI. Robocup Simulation

First of all, AI research is a whole lot more glitzy on the outside than it is internally. From the outside, game playing programs like Chinook and Deep Blue were able to make intelligent looking moves. On the inside though, the programs were unintelligently exploring millions of game states looking for the best move. So while I describe my approach to the soccer playing program, keep this in mind.

The tournament was run using a copy of the actual robocup simulation program. The simulation runs as follows: A server is started up that keeps track of where each player is, where the ball is, what the score is, etc. It enforces rules such as offside, and returns players to their half of the field after someone scores a goal. The server communicates with the programs that we, the students, wrote for the players taking in the actions that each player on the field makes at each timestep. One of the things that made this project a little difficult was that the actions the players were allowed to do were not very well documented and each student had to spend some time getting used to the interface to build their soccer playing program.

Each student was provided with a sample program that played elementary student style -- all players run towards the ball and kick it towards the opponent goal. My expectation was that many students would not build programs that were much more complicated than this style. So my goal was to be able to beat that program reliably first.

I spent a great deal of time examining the documentation that did exist for the simulator, and stumbled across a very interesting piece of information about how goaltenders had a special ability. Apparently, the simulator allowed the goalie to 'catch' the ball, and then teleport to another spot in the crease area. I spent several hours figuring out just how to get this to work, and succeeded after not too long. This was the biggest step I made in beating the "swarm the ball" type teams. Since the goaltender was now capable of teleporting to the other side of the goal and kick it down field, I had an easy way of getting the ball away from a large number of players in a concentrated space.

Now that I had my defensive position setup, I had to figure out a good way to generate some offense. Due to time constraints, and my doubts on getting a slick system working with no bugs, I decided to avoid complicated and potentially dangerous attempts to getting real communication and passing between players. Instead, I decided to try building in a heuristic-like system where players would tend to stay in their parts of the field unless the ball came near by. I had a set number of "forward", "defense", and "midfield" players who each had a home location. Next, to simulate passing, I had the defensemen kick the ball upfield at an angle towards the sides of the field (and incidentally where a player's "home base" was). Kicking to the sides of the field meant that the opponent players who clogged up the center of the field wouldn't intercept my "pass".

After I had this system working, my team looked strikingly intelligent. They'd clear the ball upfield down the sides (a lesson I learned from floor hockey), players looked very much like they were passing to one another, despite the lack of real communication. The players were blindly kicking the ball towards a place where another player tended to be. But most of the time that player had no reason to be elsewhere so he was there to retrieve the ball! Probably the least intelligent looking part of my end product was the finishing touch: kicking the ball into the net. At that point, my forwards behaved almost identically to the "swarm-the-ball" type players ... except that there wasn't nearly as many of them. So if my opponent had a good defensive position, I had trouble scoring on them. Unfortunately, I didn't have time to figure out how to improve that before the tournament started.

I did quite well in the tournament. The tournament was organized into 2 parts: a round robin seeding and then a bracketed finals system. I won my pool fairly handily which meant that I got a decent starting placement in the brackets. My program reached the quarterfinals before getting knocked out - which was a pretty happy result for me considering the size of the class. I think if my program's offense was tweaked a little more, I would've gone a little further.

The winning program? His strategy was almost a purely defensive strategy. He had a goalie and at least one other player sitting around the goal protecting it. Teams had a really hard time scoring on this program. The games were low scoring affairs, since this program had less players to form an offensive attack. Still, since players lacked offensive prowess, the defensive strategy was the right way to go for this tournament.

So ... that's what it is like to work on a program's AI. At least, that has been my experience with it. The later projects I've worked on, such as the Hex project and the Poker project have introduced much more complexity ... but underneath the bright shiny hood of AI is an ugly mess of hacks and unintelligent heuristics. Still, you can't argue with results, can you?

Heraldk

Free Beer!

Last night, Jeffu and I held our free beer night. In the computing science department, it has been a tradition for graduating graduate students to buy beer for anyone from the department who wishes to come. So last night was our night, and we held it at Campus Hudson's. The waitress we got was amazing. She took careful note of our ground rules and was very good about making sure they were followed.

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Last night I got more drunk than I have ever been in my whole life. To some, I know I really wasn't all that drunk - I mean, I didn't get sick, nor did I have a hangover the next morning, and I also can remember what happened last night. But for me to drink roughly 10 beers and 4 or 5 shots is a lot of booze to hold. It was quite an evening for us ... and we had a really good time. Unfortunately the Oilers didn't win :\

Something I should mention is that I am extremely happy with Diane and what she is willing to put up with! Diane took very good care of Jeff and I - making sure that we got home alright and being extremely patient with us. I am absolutely amazed by how wonderful Diane is to me, and last night was just another example of how wonderful she is.

One thing I was amazed with last night was the sheer number of people who came to share in our beer night. Not only that, the large number of people who stayed well past the end of the hockey game to continue partying with us. I have known other beer nights to die down before 8:00 (when the hockey game started) so I think we can call our beer night an unqualified success!

Heraldk Not a drunkard

Thesis Progress

So Jonathan returned my thesis to me on Tuesday with modifications almost entirely fitting into the minor modifications category. So for the rest of the week I made the appropriate modifications and talked to Darse about the sections that needed a little work. So now Darse is doing a full read of my thesis and hopefully that goes well for the state of my thesis!This weekend I was notified about giving the GAMES meeting talk this week on DIVAT, so I'll be working on the presentation all this week. On the whole, however, my thesis is getting close to finished. Soon I'll be defending and then on to finding a job (scary thought).

In other news, this past week was crazy busy even though it was shortened by Thanksgiving (a Thanksgiving, I might add, that I had a dinner on each night!). On Wednesday, one of the new grad students hosted a games party with the idea of holding one on a weekly basis. I'm excited about the chance to play some of the games that don't really belong at games parties. On Thursday, Mike Smith had his free beer for successfully defending his masters thesis. So Diane and I joined him and several others for drinking beer and watching the oiler hockey game. A very exciting game, I might add! On Friday we played our second session of a Serenity RPG. Its interesting, though I'm having a little trouble getting into it.

Saturday was the games party at Michael Buro's place. It was really fun - I played three new games ... one of which was a new party game of Curtis'. Its kind of a cross between apples to apples and Balderdash. Lots of fun was had by all!

So life has been real busy lately. I'm trying really hard to keep the distractions from killing my productivity. Let's see how I do!

Heraldk

First Oilers Playoff Game

Last night I was able to go to my first ever playoff hockey game, and boy was it a blast! The crowd was loud, half drunk and cheering really hard for the hometown Oilers. It was so easy to join in the loud cheering that I no longer have much of a voice today. The Oilers played an impressive game and deserved to win. They played an amazing first two periods of hockey. In the second period, Detroit just couldn't get anything going, and we walked all over them. Detroit managed to come back in the third which set the stage for a nail-biting overtime period that was almost too much. We sat on the edge of our seats for the entire time standing up everytime the Oilers came close to scoring. Finally, the Oiler's put the winner in and we all cheered like mad (I dunno where I found the voice to cheer!). There are three players that I think deserve special mention for this particular game. Chris Pronger, Michael Peca and Brad Winchester. Chris Pronger is a no-brainer. He played a ridiculous 47 minutes last night! With the game going a little shy of 90 minutes, there is no arguing that Pronger is a huge reason the Oilers are doing so well.

Second, Peca. I was immensely impressed with his play last night. There was a huge number of key little defensive plays that I picked up on during the game and I was just so impressed.

Third, Winchester. Where the hell did this guy come from? He played an incredible game, particularly in the first two periods. He had a huge number of offensive chances. He was on the ice for at least 2 of our goals, and he made some very impressive heads-up plays. This guy is going to be huge in a year or two. Heck, he's huge NOW!

There is only one thing I really didn't like about the playoff game experience. Many fans were boo-ing in the middle of the US national anthem. I'm sorry, but that's just not classy. It sickens me that fans think this is a good idea. Have some respect people! Okay I'm done.

Heraldk

A relaxing, unproductive weekend

Well, I hope I can get myself going next week. Both this weekend and the week preceding it were wildly unproductive affairs which is really not what I'm aiming for at this point when there's plenty I *could* be doing. I wasn't even all that busy with other stuff ... I just kept getting distracted by silly little things like Sudoku. I'm aiming to get to bed at a reasonable hour tonight and then get at the work I've got piling up tomorrow. On the other hand, I did get the chance to watch parts of all three hockey games CBC broadcasted today. The Oilers came out with an impressive effort in an exciting game that started at 11am our time *rolls eyes*. Ottawa's game was also quite exciting, even though they lost. I tuned into the calgary game 5 minutes into the third period ... but this one was not nearly as exciting. Anaheim looked in control of the game for most of the period especially with Calgary's Dion Phaneuf making a couple of terrible blunders that basically cost them the game.

In other news, I played some $2/$4 poker today at full tilt poker. I ended up down $2.50 for the afternoon, but I started playing again this evening and at the moment I'm up $38 which is kind of nice for half an hour of play tonight.

I also played in the PSO freeroll tonight, but wasn't all that successful. Its a shame because first place was a cool $2500 USD! I started out well by hitting some pretty good cards, but after that I just couldn't get a hand. I took a couple hits to my stack and then was forced to look for a hand. Finally, I picked up pocket kings and tried to get a double up off of a guy who used to be chip leader but had recently lost nearly all of his stack. He pushed me all in on the flop and I called. He had QT which had hit a ten on the flop ... and he turned the queen to win the pot. Ouch! So I was out in 133 place or so out of 281 people. Not terrible, but I think i could probably have done better.

Heraldk

Playoffs!

When the Oilers are in the playoffs, this is my favourite time of the year. Well, maybe not my only favourite time of year ... but it certainly ranks high! The Oiler game last night was exciting playoff hockey. Despite the disappointing finish, I think the Oil can certainly recover from the loss and come out strong tomorrow. I'm frankly confused with the "afternoon" game tomorrow though. The game starts at 11:00 am mountain time, and the only reason I can think of that they have it that early is because they want to put the triple header of hockey all day on Sunday.

But hockey players are used to coming out to play in the evening. The Oiler game is in the MORNING for us Albertans. Pro or not, those hockey players are going to be way out of their normal hockey game routine ... and I have a feeling we're going to see a sluggish game tomorrow morning despite the importance of the game.

Why is it so important to have a triple header of hockey? Frankly, I don't know.

Anyways, now that I'm done ranting, I watched the Montreal-Carolina game tonight, and was really impressed. I'm kind of a closet Montreal Canadien fan ... they're my favourite team from the Eastern conference and I was glad that they made the playoffs. I was even more happy to see them come out and play a really strong game against Carolina, which is apparently one of the best teams in the East.

Hopefully Edmonton can get their cylinders firing up and take on Detroit with all the skill I know they posess. I'd love to be cheering Edmonton and Montreal all the way to the stanley cup final!!

Heraldk

Paper Push

Well, lets see how this goes. Darse and I are working on a paper that is due on Thursday at some undefined time on that day. The nervous thing is that this paper is much less complete than the last paper I worked on. There's *a lot* of writing to do yet. So the next couple days are going to be pretty busy for that! After that, I get to really start concentrating on the Hex codebase in a push to get our hex program ready for Italy (which is looking like a pretty sure thing, as far as these tihngs go). I'm pretty excited!

But first, this paper! This has been a very busy week with many things getting my attention. I had a playoff intramural floor hockey game on Monday, and the playoffs for volleyball are on Thursday. On top of this maddeningly busy schedule, I'm still attempting to make it to the gym most days of the week ... which is helping burn me out faster than before. Ugh.

So ... wish me luck on getting through the week!

Heraldk