Playoff Predictions, Round 2, 2008

I posted before the first round playoffs started to present some output from my NHL playoff simulator. How'd it do at predicting the results? Well let's have a look. I removed the later round predictions from the last post just to clean this up and make it easier to read. Correct predictions are in bold.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.720
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811
Boston_Bruins 0.280
Nashville_Predators 0.189
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590
San_Jose_Sharks 0.634
Ottawa_Senators 0.410
Calgary_Flames 0.366

Washington_Capitals 0.481
Minnesota_Wild 0.468
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519
Colorado_Avalanche 0.532
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477
Anaheim_Ducks 0.414
New_York_Rangers 0.523
Dallas_Stars 0.586

Not bad huh? In every case, the favourite team of each match was the one that won. Three of the series went right down to the wire though, and I honestly thought Washington was going to beat Philly in game 7. They were a feel good story this year, along with the Oilers late season push to the playoffs that fell *just* short. San Jose and Montreal almost choked in the first round on series leads, but managed to pull through in the end.

So what does the simulator say for the next round? Once again the first column is the probability of winning that round. The second column is the probability of winning the conference final, and the third column is the probability of taking home the cup. This run is one million playoff simulations seeded with the results of the first playoff round.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.772 0.530 0.380
San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107
Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039

Detroit, Dallas, Montreal, and Pittsburgh are the favourites according to the simulator. The only selection that is a bit surprising for this round is Dallas - but I'm not too surprised by that considering some of the numbers they put up this year. If they can shut down Thornton, they've got a pretty good shot at the conference finals.

Overall Detroit still has the highest probability of winning the cup, up to 38% now. Montreal and Pittsburgh are neck and neck for second place in probability of winning the cup. Dallas and San Jose are next and the last three have a 6% or less chance.

Now that the first round is out, the last remaining Canadian team is my second favourite team in the league: the Montreal Canadiens. So since the Oil are down and out, I'm cheering for them. Push that 14.7% edge boys!

Heraldk

Predicting the NHL Playoffs 07/08

I've become increasingly interested in computer solutions and simulations for domains where you might not expect something can be done. One domain that I've been more and more interested in is NHL hockey -- a sport that I'm a fan of. So before the 2007/2008 playoffs started, I decided to write a simulator that figured out how likely it was that each team won the stanley cup based on their regular season statistics. The results are below, with each team's probability of making it past each round the numbers in the columns. So the Montreal Canadiens have a 72% chance of beating the bruins, and a 12.2% chance of winning the cup.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.720 0.446 0.264 0.122
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590 0.362 0.193 0.083
Washington_Capitals 0.481 0.224 0.097 0.033
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477 0.217 0.096 0.034
New_York_Rangers 0.523 0.250 0.116 0.043
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519 0.236 0.110 0.039
Ottawa_Senators 0.410 0.167 0.086 0.030
Boston_Bruins 0.280 0.098 0.039 0.010

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811 0.622 0.449 0.330
San_Jose_Sharks 0.634 0.368 0.150 0.082
Minnesota_Wild 0.468 0.187 0.056 0.024
Anaheim_Ducks 0.414 0.182 0.069 0.033
Dallas_Stars 0.586 0.306 0.141 0.079
Colorado_Avalanche 0.532 0.178 0.068 0.031
Calgary_Flames 0.366 0.086 0.037 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.189 0.072 0.030 0.012

What's startling is Detroit's enormous 33% chance of winning the whole thing. A couple of other surprises include Dallas' relatively high probability of winning the cup (7.9%). It's much higher than the Ducks or Avs which are next to them in the standings.

How does this work? I basically calculate the average goals a team is expected to score against their opposing team by using the season goals-for and goals-against numbers. I use this to simulate games between teams and run entire playoff simulations. The probabilities above are simply the number of times that team reaches the next round divided by the number of simulations.

I don't have very many features added in that I would like to add. One particular one is a recency statistic that increases the relevance of the last 20 games of the season. I expect that such a statistic will greatly increase San Jose and Washington's chances of winning the cup and probably dampen Dallas' chances.

Credit to Darse for giving me some hints and tips on how to create my simulator. Hopefully I'll get a chance to work on it a bit more so that I can build in some more statistics to help it make a more informed decision.

Heraldk

Game On

The past three games have been very encouraging for the Oilers. We're battling through some pretty intense injury trouble, but with last night's win in LA, we're now just one game shy of .500, and a pair of points out of a playoff spot. The two wins against Anaheim are HUGE for a couple of reasons. The first is obviously that wins are important against any team. But beating down Anaheim means that we are more likely to finish above them in the standings - meaning the draft pick we have from them is worth more than the one we gave up for Dustin Penner. The Kevin Lowe vs Brian Burke war seems to be evening out a little more. If the oilers can turn this season around, I think the Dustin Penner offer sheet was a pretty good move for Kevin Lowe - particularly since Penner has been playing better and better over the last few games.

The Edmonton Oilers, in the past couple of years, have been a frustratingly fun team to watch. Even in 05/06 when we made the run to the cup, the Oilers just squeaked into the playoffs. They did so by beating the good teams, and losing to the bad teams ... which made no sense. Last year's season was a terrible disappointment, but the team had so much trouble scoring. Add in the injury troubles that plagued the oilers in the late season, and it really was a recipe for disaster.

I still think the experts are crazy to think they can just write off the oilers as contenders. Anything can happen in the new NHL, and the oilers have a lot of the right ingredients to turn things around. Granted, they have a lot of young and unexperienced players on their team, but there is a lot of skill there, and if the elements click into place, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team playoff bound.

Heraldk

Predictions

I'm not going to give my predictions for the upcoming NHL season, although I suppose it has already started officially since there's been a couple of games have been played over in London. I am, however, going to rant a little about the predictions of other "experts". It seems that hockey experts agree that the Oilers have no shot at making the playoffs this year. I have one thing to say: why do these so called "experts" always sell the Oil short? It doesn't seem all that long ago when the Oilers were pushing for the 8th and final playoff spot a couple years ago. They were a team that was fighting it's own potential. I knew the team had a lot of talent, but it seemed that every couple of games, they'd lose a you-should-win-this-game type scenario and they'd slip back a notch. They did it, but barely. In the first round that year, they were up against the high powered Detroit Red Wings. Everyone wrote Edmonton off and had them down in out quickly. Surprise, surprise when the Oil suddenly became the team they were capable of becoming and took down not only Detroit, but San Jose, Anaheim, and almost Carolina en route to the stanley cup final.

Last year was a painful year for the average Oiler fan. The team struggled in mediocrity for most of the season and then got hit by a terrible injury streak that took most of the regulars out of the lineup. As a result, the team skidded to a halt and failed to win most of their remaining games.

The offseason was a high-drama period where the Oilers made a large number of moves and almost completely re-tooled. Powered by the new blue-liners of Pitkanen and Souray, they have far more power on defence than they had last year. Penner adds some size and some scoring punch and Sanderson is a wily veteran who should contribute as well. The real exciting thing for this upcoming season though is the chance for some of the youth to shine. The Oilers have several young players, in addition to Ales Hemsky, who all have a shot of hitting it big this year. These guys include Gagner, Nilsson, Brodziak, Pouliot, and Cogliano. To me, this is super exciting ... and I have a hard time believing that the Oilers are going to have trouble making the playoffs.

But lets take a look at what the experts think. One of the oft-quoted stats from last year is +/-. I'm not sure how they can compare player's +/- stats correctly when these numbers are so very biased on the team they were playing for. For example, Souray and Pitkanen both played on teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. This typically means that those teams got scored on more often than they scored (duh). So take two important defencemen who play big minutes for their teams and put them on clubs that are losing. What happens to their plus minus? It plummets. Whoop-dee-doo. I'm not saying the statistic is meaningless. I'm just saying that you need to make sure you keep in mind what you're trying to compare.

A lot of analysis seems to compare how a team has changed from the previous year. Unfortunately, this also is a problem. How do the experts know that the "winners" of the free agency craziness (the rangers and the flyers) are going to gel and mesh the star players they signed? Who's to say that teams with a bunch of young talent are going to not mesh and start winning games? The past doesn't necessarily tell the future, folks - especially when so much has changed from last season.

One of the things I think many people forget is that the new collective bargaining agreement is giving teams some level ground to play on. It's not completely level, that's for sure, but teams are much more evenly matched than they used to be. Remember the Oiler's heyday way back when they were winning cups every year? That team was so stacked that you had to expect great things from them. Fast forward to today - there are far fewer teams that looked that stacked in comparison. Maybe the penguins look a bit awesome at the moment ... but the division from them to the next closest team is far smaller than for the Oilers back in the day. The salary cap helps balance out the skill players among the teams, and as a result, nearly any team has a chance to do well enough to hit the playoffs. So I don't think last year means nearly as much as the experts seem to think. I also don't think they have ever given the Oilers enough credit.

So I think the Oilers have a good chance of doing well this season, and we'll just have to see how it turns out.

Go Oilers! Heraldk

Jerseys

The NHL this season is introducing the new Reebok Edge jerseys to all 30 teams. The jerseys are much slimmer, and reportedly contain a large number of technological enhancements that are supposed to make players faster on the ice. I'm not sure how much I buy that, but I think they look kind of cool. Many teams in the NHL have taken this opportunity to redesign their jerseys. As usual with this sort of thing, the results have been hit and miss. The Calgary flames new jersey seemed to have riled a large number of Edmontonians because they put the Alberta flag on the shoulder. I don't quite understand why people are upset. Sure, there are two teams in Alberta. Just because the flames are putting the crest on their jersey doesn't mean they are claiming that they are the only Alberta team! I don't really care if they put it on their jersey or not ... in fact it's kind of cool since they're obviously proud to be Albertan. The blue patch does look kinda funny on the red jersey though ...

The Vancouver Canucks' jerseys look pretty good. Except for one really poor detail: they emblazoned a large VANCOUVER on the front of the jersey! WHY? This text looks like somebody was confused at what city they were designing uniforms for and forgot to remove it afterwords. I love the colours of the jersey -- the blue and green look really good together in my opinion. The whale logo isn't my favourite, but the colours were cleaned up and it looks decent.

As for the Oilers ... well I'm not sure yet. They look not too bad, but they seem kinda odd. The vertical striping isn't so terrible, but I'm not the biggest fan of it. The elbows look rather odd too. I guess I'll have to watch a few games to see if I actually like them. We'll see how it goes.

As for the season, I can't wait to watch some games! The Oil made a huge number of changes to their lineup, and I'm excited to see what will happen because of it. I'm cautiously optimistic about our chances this year. The league is getting pretty even and tough across the board which makes it really quite difficult to judge which team will come out on top. I figure, we've got about as good a chance as any!

Heraldk

Oilers and Nylander

Ugh. Why is so much bad stuff happening to Kevin Lowe? Seriously, if the news reports on the Nylander debacle are true, he has every right to be seriously livid over this. What the hell? Here's where this thing hurts the most. Kevin Lowe thinks he's signed the talented player to play on the top line with Ales Hemsky. Now he can move on to fill in other chinks in the Oilers roster. This is just two days after the free agency has kicked in, and teams have grabbed a large portion of the top talent available. Now, a full day later from when Lowe *thought* he had a signing, he now needs to backpedal and see what he can get from the dwindling pool of talent available. At this point, he might have to consider Alexei Yashin ... a player I'm not entirely thrilled to think about in an Oiler uniform. If he doesn't find a player he wants, he's going to have to resort to trading again - which may or may not be possible. *sigh*. I feel real sorry for Kevin Lowe. Seriously. The guy is smart. He's made a lot of smart deals for the Oilers. However, he's gotten seriously screwed over by a couple of things ... the Chris Pronger thing was one, and now this. Not to mention the players who left after the Stanley Cup Finals last year ... despite finishing runners-up to the Carolina Hurricanes, they decided that other hockey teams were better locations. Bleh.

I really respect what Kevin Lowe is doing. His job is not easy. I feel that his Smyth trade was a smart move considering that Smyth seemed to be more interested in the money than signing with his home team. The recent Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul trade looks like a really good deal on paper to me. Sure, we lose another heart player. We've still got a lot of those! Staios, Stoll and Moreau are awesome heart and soul players for the Oil! In return, we get Pitkanen and Sanderson - both players who I think can contribute.

We'll have to see how things go. The Oilers are still in a position to do well this season. Sure, they need to add a bit more talent ... and Nylander could have been a key piece. However, they still have a lot of young talent that could either prove themselves this year or be tradebait for some top-notch talent. I'm excited to see names like O'Marra, Nilsson, Shremp, Pouliot, Cogliano, and Gagner just about ready to enter the NHL - it's an exciting time for them and I'm looking forward to seeing them develop into good players!

So I say to Oilers fans ... stay patient with K. Lowe. We're in pretty good shape still I think.

Heraldk

A New Edmonton Arena

Anyone who's been reading the journal lately knows that there seems to be an ongoing debate over the council's investigation into building a new arena in downtown Edmonton to replace Rexall Place. There's been a barrage of articles over the past few days pointing out some of the advantages and disadvantages to the proposal ... and I guess I shouldn't be surprised there is such hot debate over the topic. It is, after all, a large investment of city resources. I'm cautiously in favour of a new arena in the downtown core, but I've been waiting to weigh in on the issue until I'd read a few more articles in the paper. I think today's article by Scott McKeen convinces me that it's a good idea, and touches on many of the complaints that people have with the arena.

So, why do we need a new arena? Well the reality of the situation is that Rexall is aging - particularly when compared to arenas in other cities. It's the 2nd oldest building the remains in active use in the NHL. From the Oiler's perspective, its hard to remain competitive if they can't sell as many seats or luxury boxes as other teams. If you've been reading my blog, you know I'm an Oiler fanboy, so you'll know that I'm biased about this from the start. But before you chastise me for being biased, Scott McKeen makes the point that Rexall is not just used for Oiler games... a new arena would be usable to attract some of the world's biggest musical acts as well. Not only that, one should only look back to this time last year when the Oilers were making their unlikely run through the playoffs to know how important the Oilers are to this city. Don't you think they deserve the chance to remain competitive - particularly when a competitive Oiler team makes this city swell with pride?

So I believe a new arena is warranted. So what are the issues? Well cost is one big one. Already though, it looks like there are several options that will require much less taxpayer dollars to build the arena. As the committee looks at it in more detail, we'll see what they come up with. However, several people more in the know than I remain confident that much of the cost can be absorbed from other sources. Sounds good to me.

As to the location - why not build the arena downtown? Downtown is starting to get much more lively as we are finally seeing condos being built in the core. (I'm happy that the city is finally starting to build up a little - the sprawl of this city is kind of disgusting). Building the arena downtown can only help - particularly since the current proposal is to build it in an area of downtown that isn't exactly bustling at the moment. You have to go west of city hall to really see active part of downtown. Thousands of people pouring into downtown to watch the latest hockey game or concert -- sounds like a good plan to get people downtown. The inevitable businesses that pop up around and in the facility will help draw people to arrive downtown early and have them stay late.

To be honest, I am a little biased. And I don't know all the issues. I do however, have a hard time believing that this isn't a good idea for the city. Many articles have pointed at other cities and the success of downtown arenas there -- places like Vancouver and Columbus and Denver and ... well I forget all of them, but there's quite a few. I don't know all the information, but maybe someone can point out to me why a new downtown arena in Edmonton can hurt us.

Heraldk

Big trades for the Oilers

Well, hockey season is super exciting this time of year. The trade deadline was yesterday, and our Edmonton Oilers are looking poised to make a push higher into the standings and deeper into the playoffs. Here's the trades we made: To Minnesota: 1st round draft pick, conditional 3rd round draft pick To Edmonton: Dwayne Roloson

Edmonton gets a pretty good goaltender and they don't even have to break up any of the team to do so. This really is about as good as it could've got since so many teams are looking for goaltenders. Not only that, teams that were supposed to be offering goalies decided not to trade them after all (Buffalo, Phoenix, etc). So in theory, Edmonton now has their goalie situation sorted out. Here's hoping!

To Boston: Marty Reasoner, Yan Stasny, and a 2nd round draft pick. To Edmonton: Sergei Samsonov

In this trade, the Oilers get a speedy winger who won the 1998 calder trophy, and can score goals. In return, they don't give up all that much at all. I have never really been impressed with Reasoner (though I have had no reason to dislike him). So we give up some prospects for a fast player who looks to fit right into the Oiler style of hockey ... sounds like a good deal to me!

Assuming the team continues to play as well as they have (lots of blocked shots, 2nd fewest shots on goal in the NHL, decent scoring power) ... we should see the team finish strongly in the last 20 games of the season and I am really looking forward to seeing them go deep into the playoffs.

Gooooo Oilers!

Heraldk

Team Canada

Honestly, I can't stand the media. First, what's with the debacle of accusing Gretzky of being involved in the gambling scandal? This man does more for the game of hockey than anyone ever before. He has always been an amazing role model for the kids everywhere and what does he get as thanks? Seriously, if he says he wasn't involved, why don't you believe him unless some reason not to comes up? Jeepers.

And now, with the crazy expectations everyone seemed to have for the Canadian olympic hockey team. I don't really quite understand how Canada is such an overwhelming favourite. If you take a closer look at all the teams, there are very few weak teams out there. In fact, teams like Finland, Sweden, Russia, and the Czechs are all very strong teams with a lot of depth. Sure, I wanted to see Canada win. But just because they didn't shouldn't make us shameful. We have a lot of talented players, but that doesn't mean we'll necessarily win.

Its a very tough transition. These star players on our team are used to being the go-to guy on their team. At the olympics though, they play half as much as they would with their NHL team ... and it can't be easy to get out there and give it your all when you're used to being warmer and getting more chances with your home team.

Bleh. So now we have the media asking questions like "What happened?". I'll tell you what happened. Team Canada lost to some very good teams. Those teams got prepared for the olympics as a team and not as a group of solo star players. Those teams played better than Canada, and so they deserved to move on.

There's always 2010.

Heraldk