Why Are You So Angry?

I'm a pretty big fan of the work done by Ian Danskin (@InnuendoStudios). His "This is Phil Fish" video is fantastic and thought provoking. So I was happy to see some new content from him this past week. It turns out he's been hard at work on a series talking about GamerGate.

Six videos released daily this week are the result of this work. There's over an hour of content there, and it is well worth watching. It's a fantastic treatment of a difficult subject.

It seems to me that exposure to other ideas and points of view are essential to self development. Not everyone gets perspective on the inherent privileges they have. Heck, I'm sure I don't properly have perspective on mine. So I'm very happy videos like this are getting made, and I hope as many people as possible watch and think about them.

Talking Funny

This video with Ricky Gervais, Jerry Seinfeld, Chris Rock, and Louis C.K. all chatting about comedy and some of their different approaches is entertaining and insightful. I like how they disagreed on each other's approaches.

Now to go and spend the next few days watching and rewatching their old shows.

The Fallen of World War II

I'd go so far as to say this is a must watch. It's a fantastic visualisation of the death counts of World War II and how they compare to other wars.

Some of the moments in that video are eye-opening in a way I didn't appreciate before. In particular, the staggering number of Soviet casualties is jaw dropping when put into scale.

I guess the only slightly disappointing part of the video is it kind of felt like the author chose to spend too much time on Europe and kind of glossed over the Asia part. Maybe there will be more videos.

10000000 Development Diary

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I find the development stories behind some of my favourite games to be pretty fascinating. Awhile back, the developer of Threes posted some of their emails showing the back and forth that was the development process of probably my favourite iOS game of all time.

Recently TouchArcade posted a fascinating glimpse of the development of another game I very much enjoyed: 10000000. The developer, Luca Redwood, went through quite an interesting path to get to the final product.

Jiro Ono and René Redzepi have a Cup of Tea

Having watched the excellent Jiro Dreams of Sushi and seen René on several episodes of The Mind of a Chef, this video is both intriguing and charming.

I'm not sure I fully understand the drive that these men have to better themselves. In all honesty, while I like to think I am self-improving day by day and year to year, I'm sure that some basic level of laziness stops me from progressing as much as I am able.

Also, every time I see Jiro serve sushi it makes me want to snap book a trip to Japan.

Simulating the NHL Playoffs 2014-2015

For those who have followed me on my old blog, I have a simulator that takes some of the stats from the regular season to predict what will happen in the playoffs.

This year, I finally put a little time rewriting the simulator. Instead of using the total goals for and goals against, I used GF60 and GA60 from hockey analysis. Unlike my old blog, I think I'm going to keep updating this post with each successive round just to keep things a little more organised.

Round 1

(Posted on April 15, prior to the first round of play).

So here are your first round predictions (including chances of reaching the later rounds). I also included the final SportsClubStats (SCS) win cup % for comparison purposes.

Reach Rd 2 Reach Rd 3 Reach Final Win Cup SportsClubStats
STL 55.44% 25.19% 15.72% 7.73% 10.70%
MIN 44.56% 17.91% 10.37% 4.55% 5.00%
NSH 60.34% 36.91% 25.91% 14.98% 4.30%
CHI 39.66% 19.99% 12.04% 5.70% 6.80%
ANA 41.90% 25.62% 9.25% 3.42% 2.80%
WIN 58.10% 39.78% 17.57% 7.94% 4.20%
VAN 45.77% 14.81% 3.59% 0.92% 3.50%
CGY 54.23% 19.78% 5.55% 1.60% 4.60%
MON 61.91% 29.12% 14.80% 7.59% 6.40%
OTT 38.09% 13.29% 5.11% 2.01% 3.50%
TBL 71.27% 45.46% 27.25% 16.53% 13.10%
DET 28.73% 12.13% 4.63% 1.81% 2.50%
NYR 65.65% 44.93% 25.93% 15.63% 21.10%
PIT 34.35% 18.05% 7.62% 3.40% 1.80%
WSH 52.40% 20.13% 8.20% 3.55% 7.20%
NYI 47.60% 16.89% 6.46% 2.63% 2.60%

Some pretty interesting spots. Tampa Bay comes out as the surprising favourite to win the cup, thanks I think primarily due to its first round matchup against Detroit (This is not the Detroit team of old, at least according to their GF60/GA60 stats).

Nashville is the clear favourite in the West due to their very strong goal differential. Comparing to SCS, it's pretty obvious that whatever they use for their simulations does not use goal differential as the primary simulation mechanism. I'm pretty curious now what they do use.

Winnipeg looks like a bit of a sleeper pick from these numbers - I think largely due to their relatively soft bracket (getting by Anaheim is a bit of a challenge, but then a matchup against Vancouver or Calgary is a good spot to be in).

And the Rangers look like big favourites to come out of their division. So will we see a NSH v WIN and TBL v NYR semifinals?

Round 1 Results (posted April 30)

Reach Rd 2 Reach Rd 3 Reach Final Win Cup SportsClubStats
STL 55.44% 25.19% 15.72% 7.73% 10.70%
MIN 44.56% 17.91% 10.37% 4.55% 5.00%
NSH 60.34% 36.91% 25.91% 14.98% 4.30%
CHI 39.66% 19.99% 12.04% 5.70% 6.80%
ANA 41.90% 25.62% 9.25% 3.42% 2.80%
WIN 58.10% 39.78% 17.57% 7.94% 4.20%
VAN 45.77% 14.81% 3.59% 0.92% 3.50%
CGY 54.23% 19.78% 5.55% 1.60% 4.60%
MON 61.91% 29.12% 14.80% 7.59% 6.40%
OTT 38.09% 13.29% 5.11% 2.01% 3.50%
TBL 71.27% 45.46% 27.25% 16.53% 13.10%
DET 28.73% 12.13% 4.63% 1.81% 2.50%
NYR 65.65% 44.93% 25.93% 15.63% 21.10%
PIT 34.35% 18.05% 7.62% 3.40% 1.80%
WSH 52.40% 20.13% 8.20% 3.55% 7.20%
NYI 47.60% 16.89% 6.46% 2.63% 2.60%

If you picked the team that the simulator gave a >50% edge to, we would've gone 5 for 8, with all the misses in the Western conference. A bit of a rough start to this playoff season. Let's see what we do for round 2!

Round 2

(posted on April 30)

Reach Rd 3 Reach Final Win Cup
MIN 0.467262 0.284583 0.114486
CHI 0.532738 0.338333 0.1484
ANA 0.592412 0.243603 0.081402
CGY 0.407588 0.133481 0.034306
MON 0.409253 0.191011 0.108007
TBL 0.590747 0.329915 0.218204
NYR 0.669791 0.358398 0.236204
WSH 0.330209 0.120676 0.058991

The cup favourites are now both Eastern teams: Tampa Bay and the Rangers both enjoy huge edges in this round. The West is a bit more random with Calgary having a pretty uphill battle, and Chicago given a slight edge to win the cup.

Should be an interesting 2nd round. As a hockey fan, I'll be rooting for the Canadiens, although I think they're in tough against the Lightning.

Round 2 Results (posted May 14)

Reach Rd 3 Reach Final Win Cup
MIN 0.467262 0.284583 0.114486
CHI 0.532738 0.338333 0.1484
ANA 0.592412 0.243603 0.081402
CGY 0.407588 0.133481 0.034306
MON 0.409253 0.191011 0.108007
TBL 0.590747 0.329915 0.218204
NYR 0.669791 0.358398 0.236204
WSH 0.330209 0.120676 0.058991

This time around the simulator picks the winner as the favourite in all four series, so we improve to 9 for 12 overall so far. It almost wasn't the result though. Washington gave the Rangers a pretty tough go of it. Despite the Rangers having serious difficulty scoring goals they managed to eke out three consecutive wins to take the series back. Let's check out the next round shall we?

Round 3

(posted on May 14)

Reach Final Win Cup
CHI 0.6018 0.241522
ANA 0.3982 0.117455
TBL 0.50152 0.322258
NYR 0.49848 0.318765

The simulator thinks that an Eastern team will win the cup this year with greater than 60% shot to win the cup. Who will it be, that is the question!

I'm involved in two hockey pools this year, and my live teams are the Lightning and the Rangers (one in each pool). So I'm guaranteed a finals shot in one of my pools. Here's hoping I win one!

Round 3 Results (posted May 31)

Reach Final Win Cup
CHI 0.6018 0.241522
ANA 0.3982 0.117455
TBL 0.50152 0.322258
NYR 0.49848 0.318765

It went to the wire in both series, but the simulator "picked" the winner in both series (although the Tampa Bay was pretty close to a straight up coin flip). So we improve to a 11 for 14 prediction rate for this round.

Stanley Cup Finals

(posted on May 31)

Win Cup
CHI 0.400347
TBL 0.599653

So the simulator picks Tampa Bay as 60% favourites for this finals. I backed Tampa Bay in one of my playoff pools, so here's hoping they take it down!

Final Results (posted June 17)

Win Cup
CHI 0.400347
TBL 0.599653

So Chicago wins their third cup in six years and basically has a modern dynasty on their hands. Congrats to them, even though it cost me from winning my playoff pool. Ahh well. To my eye, the Lightning got a little unlucky in a couple of those games.

Anyway, the simulator goes 11 for 15 this year or 73.33% which isn't too bad. I've been doing this for awhile so previous records look like this. Cup winners and original simulator prediction of cup win % included for interest's sake.

2015: 11/15 (73.33%) - Chicago Blackhawks (5.7%)
2014: 7/15 (46.67%) - Los Angeles Kings (4.6%)
2013: 12/15 (80.00%) - Chicago Blackhawks (36.8%)
2012: 7/15 (46.67%) - Los Angeles Kings (2.5%)
2011: 11/15 (73.33%) - Boston Bruins (13.6%)
2010: 10/15 (66.67%) - Chicago Blackhawks (16.6%)
2009: 8/15 (53.33%) - Pittsburgh Penguins (3.6%)
2008: 14/15 (93.33%) - Detroit Red Wings (33.0%)
Total: 80/120 (66.67%)

See you next year!